瑞銀料金價明年底見2,200美元 指衰退避險及美元下跌支持金價
瑞銀表示,美國總統拜登有信心美國避免債務違約,美國數據理想及部分美聯儲委員「鷹派」言論,令金價從近期高位回落。按撰文時每盎司1,975美元計,較今年高位低約4%,但較年初仍升8.2%。該行認為有多項中長期因素,促使金價創歷史新高。
該行指,按世界黃金協會首季數據,各國央行今年料買入約700噸黃金,高於2010年至今平均每年的少於500噸。地綠政治風險升溫及通脹高企令央行繼續買金,美國凍結羅斯外匯儲備亦長遠影響央行買金行為。
該行又指美元弱勢清晰,美聯儲在歐央行繼續加息下暗示停止加息,美債孳息下跌將繼續令美元受壓,預期美元未來6至12個月將現另一輪下跌。此外,美國近期數據顯示經濟增長放慢,在首季經濟增長遜預期及製造業活動連續多月收縮,以及消費情緒跌至去年11月以來最低下,收緊的信貸狀況將影響經濟增長及企業盈利,引發避險需求。
該行繼續預測金價年底見每盎司2,100美元,明年底見2,200美元,認為黃金應繼續作為組合對沖。
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