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植耀輝:債務上限衝擊有限 港股好友反擊不易
阿思達克 05-19 10:59
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,投資者早前還在擔心銀行危機將嚴重打擊美國經濟,但債務上限危機又已迫在眉睫。現時距離財長耶倫提出之「死線」餘下不足兩星期,執筆之時美國總統拜登信誓旦旦指美國「不會違約」,市場氣氛即時變得樂觀。的確,不少財金官員已先後發出警告,一旦出現債務違約,將令美國經濟步入衰退,美股亦可能出現動盪。但歷史數據卻顯示,美股對債務上限的反應相當輕微。根據過去近50年數據,即使因觸及債務上限而令政府部門「關門」,但標普500指數並未出現太大變幅,在17次的「關門」事件中,因「關門」開始而下跌之次數為8次,而在事件得到解決後則有10次錄得升幅。原因其實亦不難理解,皆因大家亦心中有數,兩黨最終亦會顧全大局達成共識。 橋水基金創辦人Ray Dalio相當「抵死」,他形容債務上限爭執猶如一群酒鬼制定/執行飲酒限制之法律,但當接近「底線」時,他們又會進行荒誕滑稽之談判(farcical negotiation),以暫時取消相關限制並繼續狂歡,直到觸及下一次的上限,再「無限輪迴」。其實美國自1960年以來,已經歷過78次債務上限,投資者也已經「見怪不怪」;只是一日未有最終定案,投資信心仍難免會動搖。難得的是美股表現至今仍相當硬淨,納指100指數年初至今便已累升達27%。 至於港股方面,恆指繼續反覆偏軟,於250天線(19,700點)附近繼續爭持。重磅科技股除美團(03690)外已陸續公布季績,對市況亦未見帶來太大啟示。短期宜留意A股行情,始終對港股投資氣氛有直接影響,只是A股近期表現頗一般,好友要反擊恐怕亦不易,預期恆指將繼續於19,500-20,300點區間上落。當然,上文提到之債務上限因素仍須繼續關注。~
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