投資者情緒陷入年內低谷
美國銀行的最新調查顯示,全球基金經理的情緒在5月進一步惡化並降至今年最悲觀的水平。由於擔心經濟衰退和信貸緊縮即將到來,投資者們紛紛套現離場。投資者還擔心的尾部風險還包括:高通脹導致央行採取鷹派立場、地緣政治局勢惡化和系統性信貸事件。
調查顯示,65%的受訪者預計經濟將走弱。與此同時,近三分之二的受訪者認爲全球經濟最有可能出現軟着陸,並預計企業盈利只會出現小幅收縮。調查還顯示,儘管5月現金持有水平上升至5.6%,但對股票的敞口也攀升至今年以來最高水平,債券的配置水平目前達到2009年以來的最高水平。此外,在投資者的“避險情緒”下,對科技股的配置出現了自全球金融危機以來最大的兩個月增幅,做多大型科技股是最擁擠的交易。

全球股市的漲勢在五月陷入停滯,因爲投資者擔心通脹居高不下,以及長期加息對經濟增長的影響。此外,圍繞美國債券上限的僵局也抑制了風險偏好。多數接受調查的基金經理預計,美國債務上限將在所謂的“X-Day”之前上調。不過,預計在“X-Day”之前美國債務上限僵局會得到解決的受訪者所佔比例從4月的80%降至5月的71%。
美銀的這項調查還顯示,在做多大型科技股之後最擁擠的交易包括:做空美國銀行、做空美元、做多歐洲股票、做多美國國債、做多中國股票。
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