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研報掘金 | 國泰君安證券:代建行業正經歷進一步發展的窗口期 首予行業龍頭綠城管理(9979.HK)買入評級
格隆匯5月17日丨國泰君安證券發研報表示,首次覆蓋給予綠城管理(9979.HK)“買入”評級。該行表示,儘管地產處於下行週期,但代建行業卻正經歷進一步發展的窗口期。考慮到城投、AMC以及金融機構紛紛在土地市場扮演更重要角色,該行認為土地市場參與者結構的變化,將給代建行業帶來更多的新增“剛需”,而這一點市場尚未充分認識。受來自非開發類企業的新增需求推動,該行預計代建市場規模將保持高增速(至2027年每年增長20%左右),而綠城管理將繼續保持龍頭地位,其利潤有望錄得強勁增長。該行預測綠城管理2023-2025年每股盈利分別為人民幣0.464 元、0.581元以及0.708元,對應2022-2025年的年復增長率22.6%。該行採用19倍的2023年市盈率,得出綠城管理的目標價10港元。
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