大新銀行:維持本港今年經濟增長預測3.6%
大新銀行經濟研究及投資策略部表示,香港首季經濟修訂數字為按年增長2.7%,按季增長亦維持5.3%,是兩年來最強勁反彈,主要受惠內需改善。
大新銀行表示,港府維持今年經濟增長介乎3.5%至5.5%的預測,更估計增長率會接近預測上限,故該行暫時維持本港今年經濟增長3.6%。
該行指,隨著本港經濟邁向復常,加上今年初逐步恢復與內地通關,料有助私人消費及投資需求進一步改善。在外圍方面,儘管本港出口2、3月跌幅明顯收窄,但內地4月進出口數據卻差過預期,反映本港的外需情況還是充滿不明朗因素。環球經濟前景不明朗,加上歐美銀行業受壓可能加劇金融條件收緊,是本港今年經濟增長的主要挑戰;不過主要央行緊縮貨幣政策接近尾聲,而內地經濟可望逐步復甦,將繼續推動本港經濟回穩。
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