時代電氣(688187.SH):具體要看國鐵集團的招標情況,但是能夠增長是很明確
格隆匯5月12日丨時代電氣(688187.SH)於2023年4月28日17:30-18:30召開電話會議,問答環節中,就“高鐵軌交方面第一季度到第三季度招標會有多少增幅預期?”,公司回覆稱,國鐵集團從前幾年開始就不披露預期的裝備採購量,公司只能從它今年業務數據的描述中做出考量,“2023年要確保完成旅客發送量26.9億人次,同比增長67.6%;貨物發送量39.7億噸、同比增長1.8%;投產新線3000公里以上,其中高鐵2500公里。”從這些數據判斷,機車的持平或略增可以看到。且機車的全路保有量約為2.2萬台,如果按照30年的一個生命週期,每年600到700台的更新量也可以印證。從客運的發運來看,前兩年動車組的招標量已經壓減到幾十列的水平,今年恢復的情況要看國鐵集團具體的招標,按照過往情況去換算數據,我們認為100公里高鐵線路需要10組動車組的水平,因為前兩年每年完工高鐵有大概2000多公里,所以具體要看國鐵集團的招標情況,但是能夠增長是很明確。
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