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《大行報告》中金料快手、京東健康、蔚來、理想、攜程及郵儲行或可「染藍」
恆指季檢結果將於今日收市後公布。中金發表報告,預料快手-W(01024.HK)、京東健康(06618.HK)、蔚來-SW(09866.HK)、理想汽車-W(01024.HK)、攜程-S(09961.HK)、太古地產(01972.HK)、郵儲銀行(01658.HK)、京東物流(02618.HK)等排在恆生指數順位前列,有可能成為被納入的潛在候選者。該行的測算優先考慮市值順位,再結合各行業代表性等因素綜合得出。 該行指,歷史經驗表明實際結果可能與這一簡單基於順位的篩選存在較大出入,例如快手-W、京東健康等在過去幾次的預測中都排在前列,但最終都未能被納入,主要是一些作為指數諮詢委員決策依據的因素如行業和上市地代表性並無詳細說明或量化依據,當然也不排除有其他非量化因素的考量影響最終決策。 中金指,除了上述常規的調整外,港交所和恆指近期的一系列結構性改革可能帶來的變化也值得密切關注。恆指公司4月26日發布《恆生指數公司就外國公司被納入恆生指數的候選資格》的諮詢文件,其中就外國公司入選恆生指數的候選資格、恆生指數選股採用的七個行業組別,以及恆生指數中「香港」成分股數目等問題向市場徵詢意見。自今年3月港股通首次納入外國公司後,恆指公司也在考慮進一步將外國公司納入其旗艦恆生指數中。不過由於本輪諮詢的截止日為5月31日,因此可能不會在本輪調整中實施,但後續進展值得關注。 中金提到,早前發布的《港交所主板上市規則第 18C章特專科技公司被納入恆生指數系列之選股範疇》的通告,將從截至6月30日的指數檢討開始實施。盡管這一調整並不涉及恆生指數與恆生國企指數,但這一變化仍然可以顯示對相關領域公司的重視。指數擴容方面,根據恆指公司在2021年3月的諮詢結果,恆指成分股將在去年中前增加至80隻,最終固定在100隻。但目前恆指成分股數量為76隻,擴容速度整體慢於預期。
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