小摩多轉空
摩根大通策略師正放棄看好歐元區股票的觀點。以Mislav Matejka爲首的策略師週二在一份報告中寫道：“我們認爲，現在是時候結束相對於美股增持歐股的交易策略了。”他表示，在過去七個月歐股上漲後，投資者“應該鎖定利潤”。
MSCI歐洲經濟暨貨幣聯盟指數(MSCI European Economic and Monetary Union Index)自去年9月底的低點以來，以歐元計算已累計上漲近28%，約爲同期標普500指數的兩倍。以美元計算，該指數的表現更爲突出，在歐元兌美元匯率飆升的推動下，歐股飆升了45%。
歐股的強勁表現受益於中國的重新開放，以及比最初預期的不那麼嚴重的能源危機，同時經濟也保持着相對較好的增長。但摩根大通表示，這些積極因素正顯示出消退的跡象，該地區的經濟數據現在已轉爲負面。
Matejka預計，包括必需消費品、公用事業和醫療保健在內的更多防禦性板塊今年將繼續獲得投資者青睞，因此，該行將“一直是全球週期性價值投資”的歐股評級下調至“減持”。
在過去的一年里，當摩根大通呼籲增持歐股而非美股時，以本幣計算的MSCI歐元區股票指數上漲了17%，而同期美股僅上漲了4%。總體而言，在過去歐股暴跌的大部分時間里，Matejka一直保持樂觀態度之後，該策略師對歐股回到接近2022年底水平的預期持謹慎態度。
另外，儘管歐股的表現保持強勁，但與美股相比，歐股的估值仍極其便宜，按預期市盈率計算，兩者之間約有30%的折價。但策略師表示，在當前的衰退預期背景下，低估值不太可能爲該地區提供緩衝。
他們寫道：“歐元區的估值仍然很低，但從歷史上看，在美國過去的經濟衰退中，歐股在下跌過程中扮演着高貝塔的角色。”
不過，摩根大通下調歐股評級並不是呼籲投資者偏好美股，該行仍維持美股“減持”評級。Matejka最青睞的是英國、日本和瑞士等部分發達市場的股票。
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