郭思治:大市又再度處反覆不明之弱態中
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市經過連升三天後,昨日(9日)不但出現回吐,且跌幅亦頗為明顯,恆指早市先輕微低開45點至20,252點,其後曾略為後抽至20,297點,但由於買盤不繼,加上零碎沽壓又滲著湧現,故整個大市卒漸趨反覆,其後跌勢亦漸見明顯,至下午約三時左近計,恆指已急跌480點至19,817點,由於零碎沽壓漸減,故大市跌勢得以喘定,但從技術上看,整個大市已再重陷反覆不明之弱態中,嚴格而言,如恆指再度反覆於20,000點之下,擔心一旦沽壓再稍作主動,本月大市之形態亦將起變數,恆指最後報收19,867點,較上日跌429點,全日總成交金額1,221億元。
大市目前雖具上望之憧憬,惟有一點需留意,今年大市之形態仍暫屬先高而後低,恆指暫是由1月27日之高位22,700點跌至3月20日之低位18,829點,即今年大市之波幅暫只得3,871點,由於3,871點之波幅相對仍偏細,該不能滿足年內對波幅之要求,故在本年餘下之交易日,理論上定有更大之波幅點出現,假如恆指暫無法上破22,700點的話,則需慎防大市會再次回試18,829點之支持,當然,恆指亦有機會上試22,700點,惟以目前之成交金額看,技術上頗有點寸步難行之感,因動力實在並不相配。
股份中,仍以匯控(00005.HK)及中移動(00941.HK)等之表現較強,匯控股價如能成功升越年來高位60.85元,目標該直指65元,至於中移動,如能成功升越70元大關並穩守其上,目標該可上望75至77元,持貨者只要先自設止賺位,不妨再稍看高一線,至於如想高追者,最好是採取分注吸納之方式。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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