京東Q1業績即將來襲！機構：料收入增速平淡，公司利潤表現穩定
京東將於本週四(5月11日)發佈2023年Q1業績。國信證券預計，2023Q1京東集團營收2377億元，同比-1%，環比-20%，Non-GAAP淨利率同比提升0.1pct。
整體：公司主動調整影響業務表現，料一季度收入同比-1%，Non-GAAP淨利率同比+0.1pct
2023Q1，我們預計京東集團實現營收2,377億元，同比-1%，環比-20%。
1）公司業務考覈指標從營收轉向GMV和利潤，對POP模式更加重視，預計公司一季度營收受到小幅負面影響；
2）公司核心帶電品類爲耐用品，復甦更加滯後，影響公司零售業務表現。據國家統計局數據，1-2月通訊器材類零售額同比增速-8%，遠低於大盤零售總額同比增速2%。
料公司2023Q1經營利潤率1.2%，穩中有升，Non-GAAP淨利率1.8%，同比提升0.1pct。我們預計京東零售在百億補貼的影響下銷售費率和成本有小幅提升，經營利潤率小幅下降，整體看，公司加強對其他業務的費用控制，整體經營利潤率和經調淨利率穩中有升。
商品收入：料23Q1商品收入1,976億元，同比-3%
預計2023Q1京東商品收入1,976億元，同比-3%，其中帶電商品收入1,125億元，同比-5%，日百商品收入852億元，同比-1%。
整體看，公司Q1更加強調價格力，京東零售組織架構調整，將自營和POP合併，我們認爲長期看組織調整利於整體效率提升，短期隨着POP交易佔比不斷提升，可能會對營收產生負向影響；
分品類看，通訊器材類大盤疲弱，預計公司帶電品類增速受大盤影響增長乏力，日百品類低單價易耗品，復甦較快，預計一季度增速顯著快於帶電品類。
服務收入：平臺收費能力穩中向好，料23Q1服務收入401億，同比+14%
我們預計四季度京東集團服務收入401億，同比+14%。其中平臺及廣告服務收入177億元，同比持平，主要受益於京東不斷拓展平臺業務，商家活躍度和付費意願較高；物流履約收入224億元，同比+28%，受益於去年同期物流管制下增長低基數。
投資建議：
公司2023年以來持續優化組織架構和業務導向，我們預計短期會對收入和利潤造成負面影響，長期看好公司份額增長和持續創造價值能力。
我們下調2023-2025年收入調整至10,607/11,466/12,108億元人民幣，調整幅度-4.8%/-8.6%/-13.7%；下調公司2023-2025年經調整淨利潤至299/342/392億元人民幣，調整幅度-1.0%/-9.7%/-9.8%，維持目標價205-217港幣，繼續維持“增持”評級。
風險提示：
宏觀經濟系統性風險，消費復甦不及預期風險等。
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