默沙東(MRK.US)估算新冠疫情令本港每年經濟損失約416億港元
美國默沙東藥廠(MRK.US)發佈題為《被忽視的負擔:新冠疫情對各地經濟影響》報告,探討新冠疫情對亞太區五個市場包括澳洲、台灣、南韓、新加坡及香港構成的持續經濟影響。
報告指,假設現時的情況大致維持,估算新冠疫情會為本港帶來每年約416億港元(約53億美元)的經濟損失,相等於年度本地生產總值(GDP)的1.4%。
至於另外四個所調研的市場,新冠疫情帶來的年度經濟損失估計達26億美元至276億美元:新加坡為26億美元(佔GDP的0.6%)、台灣為76億美元(佔GDP的0.9%)、澳洲為170億美元(佔GDP的1%)、南韓為275億美元(佔GDP的1.6%)。
展望未來,估計新冠疫情可為本港造成每年約40億港元至1,087億港元的潛在經濟損失,相等於GDP的0.1%至3.8%,視乎疫情發展及實際情況。
報告發現,間接成本是新冠疫情目前經濟負擔及未來經濟預測的主要因素,而感染率和疾病嚴重程度在未來的變化將明顯影響經濟成本。即使新冠疫情由「全球大流行」階段逐漸轉變為「風土病」,報告預測的其構成的間接成本很可能會維持高企。間接成本主要成因包括生產力流失(如受感染後不能工作),以及照顧兒童和長者等所衍生的連鎖影響。
本港人口中有三個群組特別於疫情期間帶來最重比率的間接經濟損失,分別為易受感染人士、在職人士及醫護人員。易受感染人士(指60歲以上長者或同時患上多種疾病的在職成年人)感染新冠病毒可造成每年至少160億港元經濟損失,佔總損失額的39%。在職成年人感染新冠病毒可為本港經濟構成重大負擔,生產力損失額達每年7.93億港元,佔年度GDP的0.8%。醫護人員感染新冠病毒可為本港經濟帶來每年244億港元損失,並加劇醫療系統的人手壓力,包括延長急症室和救護車的輪候時間。而患上長新冠的人士或對醫療系統構成依賴,並有可能減低生產力,當中損失可達每年159億港元。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.