瑞銀料內地今年實際居民消費將增長逾8%
UBS Evidence Lab對200多家公司進行的最新一輪勞動力市場調查顯示,勞動力市場在一季度持續回暖。大型企業和服務業企業的招聘勢頭反彈幅度最為明顯,後者部分得益於低基數。除了對行業形勢預期樂觀之外,訂單增長和業務線擴張是支撐一季度企業招聘勢頭的重要因素。
瑞銀亞洲經濟研究主管及首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,勞動力市場預計在第二季進一步好轉,但作為經濟活動的滯後指標,考慮到企業盈利仍然承壓,其好轉可能需要一些時間。預計今年失業率將在其季節性水準上下波動, 今年實際居民消費將增長8%以上,名義增速達10至11%,同時第二季社零可能按年增長雙位數。
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