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《大行報告》中金:內地公募基金對壽險股仍大幅低配 薦太保、平安及國壽等
中金髮表報告表示,2022年11月以來中資壽險分別上漲55%及77%,跑贏滬深300指數及恆生指數各40及42個百分點,基於近期路演,該行認爲投資者對於行業的信心仍有較多修復空間,與之對應的是公募基金持倉仍處低位且行業仍被大幅低配,該行重申看好中資壽險的投資機會,基於PEV-ROEV迴歸預計行業仍有 40%以上的修復空間。 該行指,市場對壽險股信心有所增強,但整體仍然偏弱,爭議在於行業新業務價值是階段性反彈還是趨勢性反轉。去年11月以來該行走訪了較多海內外投資機構,認爲過去幾個月投資者對於壽險行業的信心雖然有所改善但仍然偏弱。 中金錶示,今年首季中資壽險合計於內地公募基金倉位各爲0.15%及0.24%,較去年第四季各下跌2個基點上升19個基點,A/H中資壽險目前倉位僅爲歷史高點(2018年)的2.3%和1.1%;當前中資壽險板A股及H股塊估值水平分別處於過去五年的36%及19%。 該行表示,儲蓄型業務在當前環境下將迎重要發展機遇,預計代理人規模亦有望隨收入、價值重回正增長之後企穩,且未來保障型業務在經濟回暖和行業改革效果釋放之後也存在潛在的修復空間。選股方面,中金指看好在過去三年的深度調整過程中負債端長期經營能力有顯着改善,或依舊保持領先的公司,推薦太保(02601.HK)、中國平安(02318.HK)及國壽(02628.HK)等,均予「跑贏行業」評級及各予目標價34.8元、86.3元及21.4元。該行預計內險股的負債端趨勢性反轉需等待經營數據驗證,而資產端將成爲短期內影響估值修復的重要因素。(wl/s) ~
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