瑞銀將內地今年GDP增長預測上調為至少5.7%
瑞銀財富管理投資總監辦公室發表報告指,鑒於第一季消費復甦好於預期,將內地今年GDP增長預測上調為至少5.7%,並認為年底前中國股市有高雙位數的上行空間,而目前市場尚未計入這兩項催化因素。儘管地緣政治風險依然存在,但認為當前的水平為參與中國股市今年的潛在亮眼表現提供了不錯的入場時機。
該行預計,盈利修正和業績表現都將在未來一至兩個季度好轉,有望成為中國股票的短期利好,並依然認為,消費、互聯網、交通運輸、資本品和材料將成為經濟復甦的受益者。
另外,貨幣方面,隨著美國利率見頂及美國經濟增長動能減弱,該行繼續為美元走軟佈局。在全球策略中,將日圓上調至看好,因為日本央行料將在今年晚些時候結束收益率曲線控制政策,而美國聯儲局的升息週期將近尾聲。日圓多倉也可作為降低投資組合風險的對沖工具,尤其是在美國大幅衰退或全球銀行業再度承壓的風險情景下。
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