第一共和搖搖欲墜、銀行業危機沒完，美聯儲下個月還會“最後一加”嗎？
第一共和銀行股價閃崩，動搖了市場原本認爲銀行危機已經結束的觀點，市場預計美聯儲可能會再5月暫緩加息，等到6月再進行最後一次加息。
美聯儲將在下週（5月3日）的議息會議上做出怎樣的決策，是全市場當前關注的焦點。而在3月遭受重挫的地區銀行股$第一共和銀行(FRC.US)$近日持續暴跌，又爲利率政策的走向增加不確定性。
本週一，第一共和銀行公佈第一季度財報，財報顯示，第一共和銀行單季存款銳減40%，即使在摩根大通等大行注資幫助下，第一共和銀行仍在3月銀行危機中流失約1000億美元存款，大超市場預期。
差勁的財報重創投資人信心。自財報發佈以來，第一共和銀行股價暴跌約64%。如果自3月8日硅谷銀行爆雷開始計算，第一共和銀行股價已經累計下跌95%。
這家銀行的危機目前尚無平息的趨勢，也讓市場擔憂，第一共和銀行或許會再掀起一場銀行業的震盪。進一步，美聯儲或將出於維護金融穩定的目的，在5月暫緩加息。
期貨市場數據顯示，聯邦基金交易員認爲加息25基點的可能性下降至76%，暫緩加息的可能性爲24%。就在上週，加息25基點的可能性還高達90%。
Evercore ISI的分析師在報告中寫道：
“我們不能排除圍繞第一共和銀行的發展可能會導致FOMC跳過5月，同時發出6月加息的信號。”
分析師指出，第一共和銀行壓力重現，讓市場疑心銀行危機是否真的已經結束；並且，其他地區銀行可能面臨着類似的不確定性，信貸緊縮的實質規模，會不會也較預期更嚴重？
上週，多名美聯儲官員表示，銀行業危機導致的信貸緊縮可能會限制支出和增長。考慮到信貸緊縮實際是在爲經濟降溫（替美聯儲幹活），因此加息的必要性減小了。
美聯儲在上次議息決議中發出了相對溫和的鴿派信號，暗示加息已臨近終點。市場普遍預計美聯儲將在5月小幅加息25個基點，自6月起停止加息，甚至在年底轉向降息。
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