發生什麼?港股電力股全線大漲,火電企業迎來“春天”,後市怎麼看?
4月26日,港股電力板塊走強,截至發稿,華能國際電力股份漲超8%,華電國際電力股份漲超5%,大唐發電漲近4%。
消息面上,昨日晚間,華能國際披露一季報,營收652.69億元,同比增長0.03%;歸屬於上市公司股東的淨利潤約22.5億元,而去年虧損9.56億元。公司稱,淨利增長主要由於煤價同比下降和電價同比上漲,這兩個因素共同影響境內電力業務經營增利。
進入2023年,煤炭價格持續下行,火電企業的盈利能力有望持續改善。
行情數據顯示,截至4月21日,秦皇島港動力煤(Q5500)山西產市場價1009元/噸,相較於3月末的1075元/噸,回落66元/噸;長協煤價方面,CCTD秦皇島動力煤(Q5500)年度長協價4月份爲723元/噸,環比3月下降1元。
西南證券認爲,在"下限保煤、上限保電"的煤電價格改革機制與中長協簽訂繼續保持高位的疊加下,煤電矛盾有望進一步緩解,動力煤價格有望迴歸合理水平。
穩增長政策持續發力,我國經濟有望持續向好,拉動電力消費需求增速回升。
2023年以來,中小企業開工率和復工達產率明顯提升。截至3月末,開工率在75%及以上的企業佔55.95%,比上季度上升25.15個百分點;開工率在75%以下的佔44.05%,比上季度下降25.15個百分點。伴隨着工業活動持續復甦,帶動了用電需求的回升,電力行業延續快速增長趨勢。
近日,國家能源局及國家統計局公佈2023年3月全社會用電量及能源生產數據顯示:2023年3月全社會用電量累計21203億千瓦時,同比增長3.6%,其中3月用電量7369億千瓦時,同比增長5.9%;發電量7173億千瓦時,同比增長5.1%;原煤產量4.2億噸,同比增長4.3%;天然氣產量205億立方米,同比增長4.0%。
今年以來電力企業業績同比均轉好,上網電價的提高也是主要原因之一。
早在2021年10月12日,國家發改委發佈《關於進一步深化燃煤發電上網電價市場化改革的通知》,將燃煤發電市場交易價格浮動範圍擴大爲上下浮動原則上均不超過20%,高耗能企業市場交易電價不受上浮20%限制。
2023年2月15日,國家發改委披露,2022年全國燃煤發電機組市場平均交易價格達0.449元/千瓦時,較全國平均基準電價上浮約18.3%。
去年,國電電力、大唐電力的平均上網電價增幅分別爲21.46%、18.37%。前者火電板塊獲得淨利潤37.54億元,由虧轉盈;後者燃煤板塊虧損額同比降低62.11%。此外,清潔能源裝機增長,也爲發電企業的利潤作出較大貢獻。
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