銀行風暴期的“安全牌”,美國科技股如今又被“嫌貴”了?
當下科技股“貴還是不貴”,未來美聯儲加息決定是關鍵。
美國銀行業風暴下,美股科技股因作爲“避風港”而強勢反彈,不少分析師警告漲勢不可持續。
彭博社週六報道指出,近期美股大型科技股和高評級公司債備受投資者追捧,其估值已經大幅超出歷史水平,漲勢可能出現痛苦逆轉。
美國銀行最新的基金經理調查顯示,做多大型科技股是目前最擁擠的交易。摩根大通曾表示,科技股已接近超買,難以繼續領跑市場。
不過,同時也有樂觀派認爲,美聯儲加息終點將至,科技股存在進一步上漲的空間。
估值過高,漲勢或逆轉?
目前,標普500指數中的全部科技股的預期市盈率接近25倍這一歷史性的高水平,要證明這樣的倍數是合理的,美聯儲將需要至少降息300個基點,這是掉期市場對今年降息定價的五倍多。
同時,科技公司的盈利前景較爲慘淡。彭博資訊彙編的數據顯示,分析師預計該行業第一季度的利潤將下滑15%,這一跌幅在標普500指數的11個板塊中排名第三,如此悲觀的業績似乎支撐不起科技股高估值。
此外,Invesco QQQ Trust(追蹤Nasdaq 100 Index的最大規模ETF)下跌10%的對衝合約成本目前是上漲10%的獲利期權成本的1.7倍,爲一年來的最大值。
考慮到估值回調的可能性,部分投資者開始從“安全資產”中撤離:
Legal & General Investment Management和RBC Wealth Management等基金削減科技股頭寸;
Plurimi Wealth首席投資官Patrick Armstrong賣出奢侈品巨頭LVMH頭寸,他認爲有些優質品牌的安全溢價過高。他繼續持有蘋果和Alphabet公司的股票,但認爲可能出現“Dead money”現象,即公司業績需要很長時間才能使趕上交易估值。
加息終點將至,仍存上漲空間?
然而,樂觀的分析師認爲,加息終點將至,經濟陷入衰退可能性增加,大型科技公司將繼續上漲。
考慮到美國經濟陷入衰退可能性增加,擁有穩健資產負債表和高額自由現金流的大型科技公司將比許多債務沉重公司能更好地度過衰退期。同時,美聯儲加息週期步入尾聲,最終將轉向更寬鬆的政策,這可能會推動進一步科技股上漲。
而且,根據Strategas Securities的數據,過去的四個加息週期中,科技股的漲幅接近21%。然而,在當下加息週期中,標普500信息技術板塊僅上漲了1%。
對此,高盛投資組合策略資產配置主管Christian Mueller-Glissmann指出:
鑑於我們目前所處的週期來說,科技股不一定很貴。雖然價格較高,但在增長減速的環境中,優質公司將表現出色。
同時,建議投資者增加對低波動性股票的投資,這些股票有望在動盪的市場中保持穩定,同時也擁有強勁的資產負債表和盈利能力。
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