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瑞銀:內地不存在系統性和可持續通縮壓力
阿思達克 04-24 10:19
瑞銀發表報告指,首季以來內地CPI較為疲弱,PPI在3月跌幅進一步擴大至2.5%、一季度平均按年下跌1.6%。 瑞銀亞洲經濟研究主管及首席中國經濟學家汪濤認為,未來CPI疲弱和PPI下跌的情況將會逐漸改善,但認為中國並不存在系統性和可持續的通縮壓力。 汪濤解釋,通縮的典型特徵是物價水準持續下降和貨幣信貸供應下降,同時往往伴隨著經濟衰退。目前與上述特徵恰恰相反,中國的貨幣信貸年初以來快速增長,今年以來的信貸貨幣供應量持續回升,新增社會融資規模連續三個月超預期強勁增長、按年增速回升至約10%,同時M2增速也持續高增。 汪濤指,目前中國的經濟增長仍在穩步復甦。 首季經濟按年增長4.5%,次季有望在低基數推動下進一步回升至約8%,下半年也有望維持在5%以上。
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