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摩根大通:美國經濟將進一步減速 衰退概率較6個月前顯著增加
格隆匯 04-23 11:46
格隆匯4月23日丨摩根大通資產管理部門發佈報吿表示,預計美國經濟將進一步減速。美國經濟6大指標(美國經濟諮商局領先經濟指標、美國經濟諮商局領先信用指標、消費者信心指數、ISM服務業PMI、ISM製造業新訂單指數、非農就業)均較6個月前指向更高的衰退概率,其中美國經濟諮商局領先經濟指標和ISM製造業新訂單指數已處於歷史低位。借貸成本上升導致企業支出和建築活動放緩;企業投資可能會因盈利疲軟而承壓;銀行業的壓力可能進一步降低銀行的放貸慾望。家庭支出和勞動力市場仍然是美國經濟的亮點。然而,儲蓄減少和信用卡債務上升可能會限制往後的消費增長。雖然大型企業正裁員以應對經營困境,但服務業的中小型企業仍在招聘。歷史上,住宅投資和企業支出在美國經濟衰退之前均會放緩。從目前的情況看,歷史可能於今年重演。好消息是家庭和企業的資產負債表都處於良好狀態,這會使經濟衰退的影響不深。

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