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期權大單 | 特斯拉全年走勢已定?寶潔異動釋放什麼信號
uSMART盈立智投 04-20 17:40

市場概覽 (4月19日)

週三,美股三大指數漲跌不一,道瓊斯指數跌0.23%,標普500指數跌0.01%,止步兩連陽,納斯達克指數漲0.03%。

當日美股期權市場總成交量33,436,089張合約。其中,看漲期權佔比51%,看跌期權佔比49%。

期權成交總量TOP10​​

特斯拉繼續排在成交榜的第三位。消息面上,儘管特斯拉第一季度交付了創紀錄的42.2萬輛電動汽車,但利潤也因此收到了影響。一季度財報顯示,特斯拉毛利率降至19.3%,低於分析師預計的22.4%。

這個業績顯然是不能令人滿意的,特斯拉股價在盤後大跌超6%。

實際上,目前全球汽車行業結束產能爲王,進入需求爲王階段,特斯拉在無王牌新車打出的情況下,用全系車型全球大降價的手段,也只是勉強保住銷量,代價是單車單價下行、盈利能力失守。兩個小體量業務,能源和服務,即使收入和利潤再出色,也難挽大局。

對於投資者最關注的“毛利率和利潤大幅下滑,不及預期,會不會影響後續定價策略”,馬斯克在財報發佈後的電話會中給出了否定答案。

馬斯克明確表態,車輛成本正在降低之中,特斯拉將繼續調整車輛價格,追求銷量而不是利潤率。特斯拉CFO則表示,特斯拉按每週一次的頻率評估車輛價格。

這些信息綜合到一起,結論就是:無論怎麼畫大餅,特斯拉今年的套路依舊是降價走量。股價走勢,恐怕會隨之進入銷量和毛利率敏感模式。

異動觀察

異動大單方面,寶潔罕見地登上榜首。

從交易情況看,寶潔的周內到看漲期權成交非常活躍。作爲消費品龍頭,寶潔一直受到通貨膨脹的威脅,消費者購買力的降低已經在上次財報中體現出來,不過,隨着此前公佈的美國CPI漲幅回落,市場對通脹及美聯儲政策走向的判斷正在發生變化,在寶潔新財報公佈(4月21日週五盤前)前的押注,大概也是對美國未來經濟形勢的判斷。

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