植耀輝:恆指拉鋸格局未變 水泥股未宜沾手
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,恆指踏入4月份後繼續維持窄幅上落,照現時情況短期內仍難有突破,繼續以250天/月線,亦即19,750點及21,070點作為好淡之分水嶺。
談談水泥板塊。多隻水泥股先後發第一季盈警,當中潤泥(01313.HK)及中建材(03323.HK)更罕見地出現虧損。水泥板塊去年受成本急增以及需求減弱衝擊,業績差已是預期之內;惟今年首季表現更似陷於穀底。事實上,雖然煤價下滑對毛利率有正面幫助,但水泥行業現時仍面對兩大挑戰,其一是在產能仍存在嚴重過剩下,現時整個行業仍處於去庫存狀態;而更關鍵的是需求似乎仍未見有改善。
另外,雖然房地產近日景氣有所回升,惟發展商現時之主要應付「保交樓」,即要將之前延期或爛尾之項目盡快交付,對新項目之投入仍相當有限。而新項目從開工到對水泥之實際需求拉動約有3至6個月之時間差,這亦意味上半年,水泥行業之困境難以扭轉。下半年則仍要看內地房地產市場是否能真正出現改善。恐怕水泥股現階段仍未到搏反彈時機。何況即使有此打算,整個板塊中,亦只宜揀選財政較健康之海螺水泥(00914.HK)矣。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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美股下挫納指跌0.8% 港股續現拉鋸
耀才研究部稱,美股隔晚(20日)下跌,三大指數跌幅介乎0.3%至0.8%。Tesla(TSLA.US)股價急挫拖累科技股投資氣氛,Tesla急跌近一成,不過晶片股則受惠台積電(TSM.US)較好之首季業績及第二季展望而有所反彈。金龍指數走勢亦較偏軟,下跌1.53%,連續第三個交易日下跌。
港股昨日走勢依舊缺乏方向,全日波幅亦只得164點,雖然收市仍能上升29點,但全日成交僅得1,015.6億元,反映投資者入市意慾不大。個別板塊如晶片及內險股續見資金吸納,反觀內房表現續受壓。在「炒股不炒市」情況下,相信恆指亦只會維持窄幅上落,繼續於現水準拉鋸。
技術走勢方面,恆指繼續維持窄幅上落,50天線(20,284點)暫見一定支持,惟一日未能突破早前高位20,864點,大市維持區間上落之機會仍高,下方則暫繼續以月內低位19,885點為支持。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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