美股明明在漲,卻是“人人皆空”?
克服重重顧慮是一回事,但要衝出當前華爾街的市場懷疑論霧障,得有非凡勇氣。
標普500指數一個月就上漲了6%。可是它越漲,人們就越不放心。對衝基金不斷加大做空美股的押注,標普500指數電子迷你期貨中的淨空倉接近2011年11月以來最高水平。
根據高盛集團的模型,從共同基金和期貨市場資金外流情況來看,該指數過去三個月本應下跌3%,而非上漲。
“眼下看漲美國的投資者如同孤家寡人,”Wealth Alliance總裁兼董事總經理Eric Diton表示。他想起最近在佛羅里達州的一次投資會議上,當被問及美股今年是否會上漲10%時,自己是少數幾個舉手的投資人。 “大家都在看衰。”
市場情緒是一回事,價格走勢則是另一回事。體現波動率的VIX指數低於17,處於去年初以來最低水平。密切追隨短期市場預期波動的美國企業信用利差顯示,“對企業利潤即將放緩幾乎毫不擔憂,”DataTrek Research的聯合創始人Nicholas Colas表示。
美國高評級債券利差上週收緊至134個基點,爲3月9日以來最低,低於一年平均水平。美國垃圾債利差在439個基點,也是3月9日以來最窄水平。
標普500指數未理會經濟衰退警告,也未受盈利預計連續兩個季度負增長的影響,但堅挺的行情能否持久讓人愈發起疑。美股還在上漲,標普500指數過去七週中有五週實現上漲。
高盛表示,標普500指數回報往往與資金流動呈正相關,當兩者偏離時,往往會在晚些時候迴歸均值。高盛追蹤的數據顯示,共同基金和期貨、掉期和期權的資金外流最爲強勁。高盛模型顯示,標普500指數自1月11日以來本應下跌3%,但實際上漲了5%。
“資金流動很弱,”John Marshall帶領的高盛團隊寫道。“這表明近期股市反彈缺乏主心骨。”
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