鋰電池股價“搶跑”反彈，行業轉折點出現了嗎？
中信證券認爲，由於鋰板塊的提前下跌，當前鋰行業公司均處於極低估值水平。若鋰價實現止跌，低估值優勢有望推動鋰板塊出現顯著的反彈行情，反彈幅度或超過上一輪週期。
18日，A股鋰電池板塊集體上漲，$永興材料(002756.SZ)$、$贛鋒鋰業(002460.SZ)$、$天齊鋰業(002466.SZ)$等連續三日上漲。港股方面，$贛鋒鋰業(01772.HK)$、$天齊鋰業(09696.HK)$雙雙漲超2%
數據顯示，截止18日，電池級碳酸鋰現貨價格報18.75萬/噸，自去年11月60萬/噸高點的跌幅超過超過70%。
中信證券指出，本輪鋰價超預期下跌主要原因有三：1）下遊去庫存導致採購走弱；2）高鋰價刺激供給大增，行業呈現供過於求局面；3）下遊電池企業給出較低的鋰價指引導致採購端觀望心態較強，進一步刺激鋰價下跌。
梳理各家券商的觀點來看，目前達成共識的是，鋰價將迎來階段性止跌。
中信建投認爲，目前鋰鹽價格已致部分外購礦石的鋰鹽企業虧損，價格繼續下跌或擴大鋰鹽減產、引發部分高成本礦山推遲投產，預計鋰鹽價格下跌已經步入尾聲。同時，國內消費正逐月環比改善，近期上海車展有望推動購車需求，全產業鏈回暖需求回升。
華安證券指出，隨着中遊去庫存逐漸見底，預計5月排產回升，碳酸鋰價格或將企穩回升。產能方面，江西鋰礦整治有減產或停產情況，且因碳酸鋰加速下跌，材料廠採購謹慎多持觀望態度，庫存低位。
但長期來看，雖然鋰價跌幅達，但中信證券指出當前鋰上遊產能擴張節奏也並未受到明顯衝擊，其測算鋰行業明後兩年供應過剩量分別爲7.4萬噸、39.7萬噸、43.8萬噸，供應過剩比例仍將擴大，價格在階段性止跌後存在進一步下跌的風險。
而無論是反彈還是反轉，分析師都認爲不影響鋰板塊迎來一波反彈行情。
據中信證券測算，若鋰價跌至15萬元/噸水平，鋰行業多數企業2023年的平均估值水平在10-20倍，仍處於相對較低水平。由於鋰板塊的提前下跌，當前鋰行業公司均處於極低估值水平。若鋰價實現止跌，低估值優勢有望推動鋰板塊出現顯著的反彈行情，反彈幅度或超過上一輪週期。
華安證券認爲，目前處在鋰電板塊估值底部，向下空間有限，市場對行業的悲觀預期已充分表現，電池企業20X，材料企業15X。同時其指出，電解液價格有望率先觸底，隨着部分產能出清，單位盈利有望在二季度初觸底反彈。負極企業一月份單噸淨利降幅較大，頭部廠商3月份已環比回升，預計負極行業整體盈利有望在二季度底迎來反彈。
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