《大行報告》中金料內房後市投資修復仍偏慢 各城市間銷售分化明顯
中金發表報告指,3月全國商品房銷售面積和金額按年轉正至增長0.1%和8.7%,新房銷售持續復甦,與該行高頻口徑數據和克而瑞口徑數據走勢一致但更為平緩。中金認為新房銷售復甦延續與疫後需求釋放、政策環境溫和、價格預期好轉、推盤邊際回升等因素直接相關;往前看,建議重點關注新房推盤量以及更前置的推地量表現,供應伴隨需求同頻恢復是銷售量持續回升和房價走勢平穩的先決條件,尤其是在庫存偏低的一線和強二線城市。
中金認為開工、投資的修復節奏階段性或持續偏慢,須重點關注土地市場邊際動態,包括推地情況和企業拿地意願,年初以來基本面較好的重點城市土拍熱度已有明顯回升,但鄭州、長春等地溫度仍偏低。
另外,中金認為,新房銷售量價表現在城市間分化將更加明顯,財務穩健、土儲優質、拿地積極均好型房企在供給側出清和基本面修覆過程中的受益邏輯凸顯,投資修復速度偏慢或使得政策環境階段性保持相對溫和。內房推薦均好型標的,包括中海外(00688.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、越秀地產(00123.HK)、建發國際(01908.HK),以及財務穩健低估值標的包括金茂(00817.HK)、中海宏洋(00081.HK)、綠城(03900.HK) 。物管推薦穩健型標的保利物業(06049.HK)、中海物業(02669.HK)、華潤萬象(01209.HK)和萬物雲(02602.HK);代建板塊推薦綠城管理控股(09979.HK)。
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