期權大單 | 特斯拉財報將至，反彈之路已到盡頭？
一、市場概覽
上週五，儘管以摩根大通爲首的大銀行Q1財報強勁，但3月零售數據（俗稱“恐怖數據”）疲軟令市場承壓，加上美聯儲高官的鷹派講話，三大指數集體收跌。截至收盤，道瓊斯指數跌0.42%，標普500指數跌0.21%，納斯達克指數跌0.35%。
綜合來看，基本面美國3月非農就業數據對美聯儲5月加息形成支撐，製造業PMI持續萎縮、服務業PMI擴張放緩、薪資增速回落、通脹加快下行，高頻就業拐點顯現，經濟下行的壓力逐漸向下傳導，疊加美國即將迎來財報密集公佈期，美股短期面臨調整壓力。特別是在5月FOMC利率決議會議召開前，市場波動或將加大。
當日美股期權市場總成交量40,040,791張合約。其中，看漲期權佔比53%，看跌期權佔比47%。
二、期權成交總量TOP10
消息面上，3月27日宣佈，該公司首席財務官Kim Brady即將於4月7日退休。而上個月，這家總部位於亞利桑那州的卡車製造商表示，影響其純電動卡車需求的問題預計不會在近期內緩解。該公司在去年第四季度交付的純電動卡車的數量，還不到產量的六分之一。
消息面上，特斯拉將於4月19日美股盤後公佈2023年第一季度財報。分析師預計，特斯拉Q1營收將同比增長25.6%至235.6億美元，每股收益將同比下降20.6%至0.85美元。
對投資者來說，利潤率是這份即將到來的財報中值得重點關注的數據。今年以來，特斯拉在全球範圍內掀起“降價潮”，在美國、中國和歐洲等市場均下調了旗下電動汽車的售價，試圖以降價的方式提振市場需求。
不過，特斯拉的降價策略也引發了投資者對其利潤率表現的擔憂。花旗和Bernstein就曾表示，隨着特斯拉即將公佈一季度財報，市場將更加關注這家電動汽車製造商的毛利率，因爲這將成爲近期市場情緒的決定因素。另有分析師預計，特斯拉的降價或使其每年損失約7億美元。
如果利潤率保持健康，該公司的股票表現將相當不錯。然而，如果利潤率被擠壓，那麼空頭將會控制局面。華爾街希望看到特斯拉以更實惠的價格服務於更廣泛的整體潛在市場，同時保持健康的利潤率。
今年迄今爲止，特斯拉的股價已經上漲了逾50%。從技術角度來看，特斯拉已經在投資者日之後觸底反彈。特斯拉的走勢與科技股一致，這意味着該股可能會受到宏觀因素惡化的影響。
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