財報前瞻 | 接連推出多項新服務,奈飛Q1用戶增長能否重回正軌?
奈飛(NFLX.US)將於美東時間4月18日美股盤後(北京時間4月19日清晨)公佈2023年第一季度財報。市場預期該公司Q1營收81.8億美元,同比增長4%;每股收益預計爲2.81美元,同比降低20%。
雖然奈飛的用戶增長仍然是焦點,但其在添加支持計劃中的表現也是投資者將關注的關鍵領域。
預計用戶將穩步增長
奈飛在2022年第一和第二季度的使用量都出現了負增長,該公司的股價在2022年的前五個月中下滑了68%。再加上2022年的宏觀不利因素,奈飛意識到其無廣告業務無法持續,因爲用戶增長放緩和拍攝成本上升吞噬了利潤率。雖然由於亞馬遜Prime、迪斯尼+和YouTube等對手的激烈競爭,年度用戶增長放緩,但從2022年第三季度開始,奈飛的新用戶又有所回升。
2022年11月,奈飛推出了廣告支持的分層計劃,今年頭兩個月在美國新增了100萬用戶。該公司預測,到2023年第三季度,將從廣告支持的層級服務中增加約1300萬用戶。奈飛在第四季度增加了766萬用戶,這大大超出了預期。到年底,奈飛的用戶總數達到2.3975億,但該公司停止提供從2022年第四季度開始的用戶增長指導。
分析師的平均預期顯示,奈飛在第一季度將新增371萬用戶。
最近,奈飛的付費共享(Paid Sharing)服務已經揭示了該企業的增長潛力。據悉,奈飛推出的付費共享服務旨在打擊密碼共享,該服務已在加拿大、新西蘭、葡萄牙和西班牙等多個國家展開。奈飛表示,這些國家的用戶將被要求爲其奈飛帳戶設置一個主要位置,並允許爲兩個非同住者新增子帳戶。除此之外,該公司還將向每位額外用戶收取月費。
此外,奈飛報告稱,2022年的自由現金流爲16億美元,預計2023年將增長到30億美元。健康的財務狀況被視爲支持增長的關鍵因素,尤其是在艱難的宏觀環境下。
根據Zacks的數據,奈飛的收益在2023年預計將增長12%,2024年再增長26%。隨着其市盈率從2021年初的90倍以上降至35倍,其股票可能有更好的機會超越增長預期。
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