信銀國際料美國5月再加息四分一厘 下半年衰退風險不容忽視
中信銀行(國際)首席經濟師卓亮表示,部分已發展經濟體衰退陰霾未散,預測美國在5月議息會議中宣布再加息四分之一厘後,今輪加息周期或於第二季接近完結,雖然歐美銀行業未構成系統性風險,但間接對市場造成壓力,認為下半年出現衰退風險不容忽視,美國下半年進入全面衰退可能性較大。
他解釋,雖然新增職位數據表面強勁,但企業裁員消息持續,美國實際薪酬升幅亦倒退,形容勞動力市場「外強中乾」,加上美聯儲為應付銀行危機而釋放出較大量流動性,料抵銷數月縮表成果。
該行認為全球國際貿易或出現罕見收縮,需求減弱將影響中國製造業表現。卓亮預期,短期內中國製造業或較難出現改善,預料服務業將成為今年增長決定性因素,但相信今年中國經濟增長達到5%的官方目標難度不大,未來內地不太需要寬鬆政策來刺激市場,因此預期今年貨幣政策方向中性趨穩,減息機會較低。他估計中國今年增長動力將集中於私人消費及服務業,而製造業及固定投資增速維持去年相若水平,較樂觀地展望全年GDP增長約6%。
至於香港,他指出社會復常下私人消費反彈,預測至年底失業率將下降至約3%,同時美國加息周期料結束,收窄本港同業拆息及最優惠利率的上升空間,對房地產市場情緒改善有幫助,預測今年全年本港樓價將錄得5%升幅,維持今年本港經濟增長接近4%的預測。
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