《大行報告》中金調整物管股盈測 薦保利物業、中海物業、華潤萬象生活及萬物雲
中金發表內地物管股行業報告,調整物管股盈測,預計覆蓋穩健型標的今明兩年淨利潤平均複合增速26%、延續其中長期發展目標;其他民企基本面風險出清節奏則不可一概而論,仍需持續關注利潤率變動趨勢、地產關聯業務出清程度、資產負債表潛在壓力等。
商管板塊,該行認為今年相關標的經營表現向上彈性均可期,但未來持續成長性或仍將分化。代建板塊,該行認為代建市場仍處於持續擴容機遇期,綠城管理(09979.HK)未來三年有望兌現25至30%左右淨利潤複合增長。
中金建議優選估值具吸引力的穩健型標的。物管與商管板塊,該行持續推薦保利物業(06049.HK)、中海物業(02669.HK)、華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)和萬物雲(02602.HK),未來半年到一年,房地產及經濟環境復甦下業務全面發展帶動的盈利穩健兌現,有望為其提供具吸引力的投資回報。
而對於報表已實質受地產端較大拖累的民企,中金指即便在假設風險已較充分出清前提下、當前派息政策下估值隱含回報亦有限,且實際未來地產端拖累、物企自身報表壓力消化、及後續能否重回穩健發展通道均仍需持續觀察驗證。
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