郭家耀:觀望今周經濟數據 港股料徘徊20,000至20,800區間
安里資產管理董事總經理郭家耀稱,美股周一(10日)跌後回升,美債息上升拖累科技股表現,大市早段偏軟,其後有趁低吸納,道指及標普500指數倒升收市,納指則逆市向下。美元走勢向好,美國十年期債息回升至3.41厘水平,金價輕微受壓,油價由高位回落。港股預託證券個別發展,預料大市早段溫和向好。
內地股市昨日下跌,滬綜指高開低走,收市下跌0.4%,滬深兩市成交額明顯增加。
港股假期前好淡爭持,指數企穩20,000點水平,長假期前大市成交偏淡。外圍表現靠穩,投資者觀望今周公布經濟數據表現,預料指數繼續於20,000至20,800點水平徘徊。
另克而瑞地產研究發佈最新統計,3月首百大房地產企業銷售操盤金額6,608.6億元人民幣,按年增長29.2%,按月急升42.3%。累計第一季,銷售操盤金額14,827.7億元人民幣,扭轉首兩月跌勢,錄得3.1%增幅。季內逾半百強房企銷售按年增長,升幅大過30%的企業有38間。3月為傳統行銷旺季,30個重點城市供應量按月大增1.64倍;按年及按月成交均上升,但增幅呈收窄趨勢,首季累計成交上漲21%。
克而瑞指出,整體而言,隨疫情管控全面鬆綁、企業供應自低位回升,雖然首季樓市止跌回穩,市場供求及企業銷售反彈,惟部分弱二三線城市成交按月轉跌,需求已現階段性樽頸;目前需求端的購買力仍處於歷史相對低位,市場熱度及增長動力在第二及第三季能否延續,主要取決於行業預期及信心的修復情況。
展望後市,克而瑞認為,4月成交延續「弱復甦」,增長動力還將減慢,熱點城市諸如北京、上海、杭州、成都等改善需求持續釋放,預期高位運行,整體持穩。市場預期內房行業復甦步伐並不平穩,後續仍需加大政策力度,提振房企銷售表現。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,本人及相關人士沒持有上述股份)~
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