《大行報告》摩通料內房股第二季不會迎來明顯催化劑 普遍下調目標價
阿思達克 04-06 14:27
摩根大通發表報告指，本年迄今，中國房地產的表現落後於MSCI中國指數，因為雖然銷售有所改善，但信心的可持續性仍然較低，內房良好的銷售業績並沒有持續推高股價。該行指，儘管行業基本面並未惡化，但由於大幅寬鬆政策的可能性愈來愈低，相信今年第二季沒有明顯的催化劑，故預計行業在今年次季將保持區間波動，並跑輸MSCI中國指數。
該行相信，要待內地新開工量顯著回升、寬鬆政策轉強及銷售額較過去三年平均水平相比下出現正增長時，行業才會「跑贏大市」。在開發商中，該行首選中國海外(00688.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、保利發展(600048.SH)；物管方面則首選保利物業(06049.HK)、中海物業(02669.HK)、華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)。該行指，對所有陷入困境的公司均保持審慎態度。
該行下調萬科(02202.HK)(000002.SZ)A/H股、新城發展(01030.HK)(601155.SH)A/H股、中國金茂(00817.HK)、綠城服務(02869.HK)及新城悅服務(01755.HK)評級至「中性」。該行認為，這些公司未有更高的流動性風險，然而，正是因為市場不再過於擔心流動性，股價驅動因素亦轉回基本面，並且預計在最新的中期業績錄得改善之前，短期獲重估的可能性不大。另外，該行亦普遍下調內房股的目標價，其中，萬科H股目標價由18元降至13元；新城發展由4元下調至2.1元。
摩通發表研究報告，對內房及物管股投資評級及目標價表列如下:
股份|投資評級|目標價(港元)
萬科企業(02202.HK)|增持→中性|18元→13元
碧桂園(02007.HK)|中性|2.5元→2.3元
新城發展(01030.HK)|增持→中性|4元→2.1元
融創中國(01918.HK)|減持|4.1元→1元
雅居樂(03383.HK)|減持|1.8元→1.5元
龍光集團(03380.HK)|減持|0.5元
富力地產(02777.HK)|減持|1.25元
合景泰富(01813.HK)|減持|1.2元→1元
寶龍地產(01238.HK)|減持|0.85元→1元
中駿集團(01966.HK)|中性|1元→0.77元
時代中國(01233.HK)|減持|0.81元→0.32元
禹州集團(01628.HK)|減持|0.25元→0.13元
中海物業(02669.HK)|增持|12元
保利物業(06049.HK)|增持|68元
雅生活服務(03319.HK)|減持|6.4元→6元
金科服務(09666.HK)|減持|6.5元→5.7元
世茂服務(00873.HK)|減持|1.3元
新城悅服務(01755.HK)|增持→中性|9.3元→6.3元
寶龍商業(09909.HK)|減持|3.3元→3.9元
中國金茂(00817.HK)|增持→中性|2.1元→1.5元
綠城服務(02869.HK)|增持→中性|5.8元→5.2元
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