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渣打上調香港今年GDP增長預測至3.6% 料樓價進一步上升空間有限
渣打發表報告,將香港今年經濟增長預測從3.2%上調至3.6%;料在重新開放的熱情消退後,營商信心進一步改善或有難度。歐美銀行業危機為未來利率走向及經濟展望帶來不確定性。此外,本地樓市輕微復甦、出口商去庫存壓力續高企,以及地緣政局緊張,將致企業營商取態維持審慎。在本地勞工市場緊張下,本地消費仍是重要信心錨。 不過,報告關注疫情後本地勞動人口未見反彈。這或反映居民不積極重投勞動市場,移民潮加劇,以及人口老化。這限制短期零售開支增加,亦限制長遠消費增長。該行亦預期相當部分的家庭購買力增長,將流向海外(旅遊)而不是本地。 渣打料本地樓市去年12月已見底,本年至今中原城市領先指數累升逾6%,每月交投亦見上升。不過,該行料未來進一步復甦空間有限,因市場對未來放寬「辣招」的預期減退,未來供應亦有望增加。因去年樓市下行,發展商減慢開盤步伐,今年料加快推盤去庫存,這限制今年樓價上升空間。該行料利率最快今年次季重新走向利好(意味見頂)。 渣打繼續預計今年全球經濟增長將放緩,當中歐美將領跌,疫情雖消散,但對經濟的影響依然存在,俄烏戰爭變成僵持不下的局面,地緣政治風險仍然較高。 該行指出,各國央行積極收緊貨幣政策以遏抑通脹壓力,但亦展示出更廣泛的金融市場脆弱性,雖然預計未會出現系統性問題,但利率趨升及脆弱的投資者信心增加風險蔓延的可能性,估計有不少經濟體的政策利率將在未來12至18個月內降低,收益率曲線走低將緩解因利率上升而產生的市場壓力。
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