《大行報告》富瑞下調中國建材(03323.HK)目標價至8.44元 升海螺水泥(00914.HK)評級至「持有」
富瑞發表研究報告指,料內地水泥行業的龍頭企業可能不會在今年進行價格戰,但有機會進行併購。該行估計水泥企業的盈利能力今年或會溫和反彈,但今年後的前景仍然是一個下滑壓力。
該行籲「買入」中國建材(03323.HK),目標價由9.61元下調至8.44元;予西部水泥(02233.HK)「買入」評級,目標價由0.95元上調至1.89元;升海螺水泥(00914.HK)至「持有」評級,目標價由21.08元上調至24.92元。天山水泥(000877.SZ)及華潤水泥(01313.HK)「跑輸大市」評級。
富瑞提到,龍頭企業不願購買西南等貧困地區的資產,水泥企業亦不願出售廣東等優質地區的優質資產。目前,利用碳交易來限制行業排放的計劃草案準備在4月全行業討論後的3至6個月內提交給中央,料批准過程可能需要數月或數年。在這個制度下,生產線不先進且因此能源或碳密集型的小型工廠將在碳配額上產生額外成本,令它們缺乏競爭力後被逐步淘汰。因此,龍頭企業並不急於進行併購。但該行認為,在領先的生產商市場份額增加之前,水泥盈利能力仍將受到限制。
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