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《大行報告》瑞信下調國壽(02628.HK)目標價至16元 評級「跑贏大市」
瑞信發表研究報告,指國壽(02628.HK)去年新業務價值(VNB)按年跌19.6%,大致符該行預期,並意味去年末季跌幅擴大。末季首年保費收入跌8.2%,因國壽聚焦今年「開門紅」。去年下半年利潤率跌10個百分點至26%,因產品組合改變。經銷團隊人數按季減少7.2%至66.8萬人,但去年生產力升15%。本年至今該行估算國壽VNB有中單位數增長,部分由於經銷活動增加。該行估算今年國壽VNB增6%,經銷團隊趨穩定。 報告指國壽去年稅後純利跌37%遜市場預期,主因去年下半年來自聯營淨虧損53億元人民幣,當中26億元人民幣與遠洋集團(03377.HK)相關減值有關。撇除有關減值,去年稅後純利應跌31%,大致符該行預期。即使純利遜預期,其每股49分人民幣末期息勝市場預期,意味分派比率43%。瑞信降其今明兩年每股盈測8%及7%,目標價由17元降至16元,評級「跑贏大市」。
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