利率互換市場預計美聯儲5月大概率將再次加息25個基點
目前,與美聯儲會期掛鉤的互換合約定價表明,美聯儲很有可能在5月份的下次會議上加息25個基點。
週一,與此次會議掛鉤的合約利率升至4.96%左右,比當前聯邦基金利率高出約13個基點。美聯儲傾向於以25個基點或25個基點的倍數加息,因此這意味着美聯儲加息的可能性超過50%。
市場對美聯儲加息押注加大之際,由於美國銀行前景更加樂觀,短期國債利率週一大幅上升。市場此前曾暗示美聯儲將進一步加息,但在上週美聯儲的最新決定、主席鮑威爾的言論以及對美國金融體系的持續擔憂之後,這些預期基本上煙消雲散。
與此同時,美國國債收益率躍升,從年內最低水平回升,原因是隨着美國對銀行業提供進一步支持的前景重現,對銀行業危機蔓延的擔憂有所緩解。
兩年期國債收益率領漲,最高攀升22個基點至3.99%,收窄了自本月初對銀行業危機的擔憂席捲市場以來逾1.5個百分點的跌幅。
對美聯儲政策行動不太敏感的較長期債券收益率小幅上升,令收益率曲線趨平。此前,收益率曲線曾因收益率下降而急劇趨陡。
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