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《業績前瞻》券商料農行(01288.HK)去年多賺逾5% 料每股派息增逾6%(更新)
據中銀監上月披露內地商銀去年累計實現淨利潤按年升5.4%,農業銀行(01288.HK)將於本周四(30日)公布去年業績,受淨息差收窄影響,本網綜合9間券商預測,農行2022年純利料介乎2,476.94億至2,554.3億元人民幣,較2021年的2,411.83億元人民幣,按年上升2.7%至5.9%;中位數2,545.97億元人民幣,按年增加5.6%。 綜合6間券商預測,農行2022年營業收入料介乎7,371.68億至7,497.07億元人民幣,較2021年度的7,217.46億元人民幣,按年上升2.1%至3.9%;中位數7,444.9億元人民幣,按年升3.2%。本網綜合4間券商預測,農行2022年每股派息料介乎20至22分人民幣,對比對上年度的20.68分人民幣,按年減少3.3%至增加6.4%。中位數22分人民幣,按年增加6.4%。市場關注農行管理層給予今年營運前景及信貸增長指引,並留意涉及內房企業信用貸款的風險及指引。 【料純利增半成 聚焦內房信貸】 中金公司料農業銀行去年多賺6%至2,546億元人民幣,料每股全年派息0.22元人民幣。中金上月報告引述農行管理層指,按新生成不良貸款規模及貸款平均餘額計算,截至2022年貸款不良貸款淨生成率處1%以下的較低水平,連續三年下降。2022年不良貸款率、關注類貸款率亦呈下降趨勢。該行亦引述農行指,去年開發貸款相關存量業務風險有所暴露,不良貸款率小幅上升,但整體風險可控。 瑞銀1月曾發表報告引述農行指,去年第四季淨息差收窄幅度較去年第三季減少,部分基於存款利率下調。農行亦披露內房貸款結餘在去年10月至11月上升介乎200億至300億元人民幣,為去年年中貸款餘額2.4%至3.6%。大部分新增內房貸款為按項目而非直接給予發展商,農業銀行亦預期,由於政策支持房地產業,該行料相關資產質素壓力將在今年紓緩,內地經濟重啟有助改善受新冠影響行業資產質素。 ------------------------------------------- 本網綜合9間券商預測,農行2022年純利料介乎2,476.94億至2,554.3億元人民幣,較2021年的2,411.83億元人民幣,按年上升2.7%至5.9%;中位數2,545.97億元人民幣,按年增加5.6%。 券商│2022年純利預測(人民幣)│按年變幅 廣發証券│2,554.3億元│+5.9% 海通國際│2,553.94億元│+5.9% 中信証券│2,552.7億元│+5.8% 中銀國際│2,547.94億元│+5.6% 中金│2,545.97億元│+5.6% 摩根大通│2,541.56億元│+5.4% 野村│2,541.52億元│+5.4% 華泰証券│2,540.04億元│+5.3 星展│2,476.94億元│+2.7% 按農行2021年純利2,411.83億元人民幣計算。 ------------------------------------------- 綜合6間券商預測,農行2022年營業收入料介乎7,371.68億至7,497.07億元人民幣,較2021年度的7,217.46億元人民幣,按年上升2.1%至3.9%;中位數7,444.9億元人民幣,按年升3.2%。 券商│2022年營業收入預測(人民幣)│按年變幅 瑞銀│7,497.07億元│+3.9% 中銀國際│7,491.52億元│+3.8% 野村│7,447.12億元│+3.2% 摩根大通│7,442.65億元│+3.1% 建銀國際│7,433億元│+3% 星展│7,371.68億元│+2.1% 按農行2021年營業收入7,217.46億元人民幣計算。 ------------------------------------------- 本網綜合4間券商預測,農行2022年每股派息料介乎20至22分人民幣,對比對上年度的20.68分人民幣,按年減少3.3%至增加6.4%。中位數22分人民幣,按年增加6.4%。 券商│2022年每股派息預測(人民幣)│按年變幅 中金│22分│+6.4% 摩根大通│22分│+6.4% 法國巴黎銀行│22分│+6.4% 中銀國際│21.5分│+4% 按農行2021年全年每股派息20.68分人民幣計算。 (fc/w) ~
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