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《大行報告》中金料人行降準提升內銀淨息差0.6個基點
中金發表報告指,人民銀行於3月17日宣布降準25點子,參考去年人行的估算來看,此次降準釋放的流動性可能略高於5,000億元人民幣(下同)。該行認為,季末前降準傳遞的政策信號是維護流動性和利率中樞平穩,符合當前的基本面和政策要求,在一定程度可以打消市場的「緊縮預期」,但25點子較為克制的降幅,或也意味著貨幣政策可能不會在當前基礎上明顯寬鬆。 中金表示,接下來貨幣政策的走向主要取決於兩方面的因素,包括經濟是否已經回升到合理區間、並可以穩固保持,及資產價格是否有大幅上漲的傾向。還有一點要注意的是,近年來結構性貨幣政策工具的重要性上升,貨幣政策不一定總是通過總量寬鬆來實現。 另一方面,中金稱信貸投放加快,降準必要性提高,今年1月及2月信貸投放規模均超市場預期,首兩個月合計新增貸款6.7萬億元,已大幅按年多增1.5萬億元,投放節奏明顯前置。投放節奏明顯加快背景下央行基礎貨幣投放或難以及時緩解銀行流動性缺口,降準必要性有所提高。該行估算此次降準釋放流動性約5,000億元,假設全部用於貸款投放,預計提升銀行淨息差0.6個基點,相當於今年淨利潤0.6%。整體而言該行預計是次降準對銀行整體影響較小。
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