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線下復甦不改電商滲透率提升趨勢
uSMART盈立智投 03-16 14:41

來源:國信證券作者:謝琦報告名稱:《國信證券-2023年1-2月電商數據:線下復甦不改電商滲透率提升趨勢》

國家統計局公佈2023年1-2月線上社會消費品零售額數據。

2023年1-2月份,社會消費品零售總額7.7萬億元,同比增長3.5%。其中,除汽車以外的消費品零售額7.0萬億元,增長5.0%。

全國網上零售額2.1萬億元,同比增長6.2%。其中,實物商品網上零售額1.7萬億元,增長5.3%,佔社會消費品零售總額的比重爲22.7%;在實物商品網上零售額中,吃類、穿類、用類商品分別增長5.3%、4.0%、5.7%。

國信互聯網觀點:1)整體:疫情影響逐步消退,社零增速轉正,預計3月社零增速將繼續恢復。2023年1-2月社會消費品零售總額7.7萬億元,同比+3.5%,低於2022年同期增速(yoy +6.7%),與12月增速(yoy -1.8%)相比有所回升,部分受汽車、通訊類銷售低迷影響增速放緩(YoY -9.4%/-8.2%)影響。

2)線上零售:電商在信息流/物流/資金流上效率更優,電商滲透率持續提升,1-2月線上化率同比提升0.7pct至22.7%。

3)線上零售分品類:直播電商大幅改善線上服飾類購物體驗,1-2月線上穿類零售額增速4%,高於去年同期的3.9%。線下復甦導致線上GMV部分分流,吃類和用類線上零售額同比5.3%/5.7%,相較22年1-2月的12.7%/15.1%有所下降。

消費回暖態勢下我們看好2023年電商板塊發展,重點標的推薦順序爲$拼多多(PDD.US)$、$阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)$、$唯品會(VIPS.US)$和$京東集團-SW(09618.HK)$。

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