线下复苏不改电商渗透率提升趋势
来源:国信证券作者:谢琦报告名称:《国信证券-2023年1-2月电商数据:线下复苏不改电商渗透率提升趋势》
国家统计局公布2023年1-2月线上社会消费品零售额数据。
2023年1-2月份,社会消费品零售总额7.7万亿元,同比增长3.5%。其中,除汽车以外的消费品零售额7.0万亿元,增长5.0%。
全国网上零售额2.1万亿元,同比增长6.2%。其中,实物商品网上零售额1.7万亿元,增长5.3%,占社会消费品零售总额的比重为22.7%;在实物商品网上零售额中,吃类、穿类、用类商品分别增长5.3%、4.0%、5.7%。
国信互联网观点:1)整体:疫情影响逐步消退,社零增速转正,预计3月社零增速将继续恢复。2023年1-2月社会消费品零售总额7.7万亿元,同比+3.5%,低于2022年同期增速(yoy +6.7%),与12月增速(yoy -1.8%)相比有所回升,部分受汽车、通讯类销售低迷影响增速放缓(YoY -9.4%/-8.2%)影响。
2)线上零售:电商在信息流/物流/资金流上效率更优,电商渗透率持续提升,1-2月线上化率同比提升0.7pct至22.7%。
3)线上零售分品类:直播电商大幅改善线上服饰类购物体验,1-2月线上穿类零售额增速4%,高于去年同期的3.9%。线下复苏导致线上GMV部分分流,吃类和用类线上零售额同比5.3%/5.7%,相较22年1-2月的12.7%/15.1%有所下降。
消费回暖态势下我们看好2023年电商板块发展,重点标的推荐顺序为$拼多多(PDD.US)$、$阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)$、$唯品会(VIPS.US)$和$京东集团-SW(09618.HK)$。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.