機構：央國企投資思路爲“低估值+高分紅”
來源：中信建投證券研究
“低估值+高分紅”是一條重要且清晰的央國企投資思路，是助力央國企“價值實現”的潛在可選路徑之一，符合重視股東回報的要求。在提升資本市場對於央國企價值認可的同時，同樣有望成爲財政收入來源的新動能。我們從歷史分紅角度、派息分紅能力、派息分紅意願三個角度構建高分紅水平國企篩選體系。
提升分紅助力央國企“價值實現”
政策鼓勵分紅的傾向長期存在，完善分紅機制始終是國企改革的一大清晰主線。提升現金分紅水平有助於市場充分認知國企盈利穩定性，明確國企在經濟發展中的支柱地位，實現國有資本在流動中優化佈局、提升價值；同時符合重視股東回報的要求，有望推動國企在未來能夠得到更多青睞“高分紅”的長期資金的認可。此外，國企分紅流向財政“四本帳”的過程有特別的二次分配製度，以國企分紅率系統性擡升行使“準財政職能”的“股權財政”模式可以緩解財政收支壓力，成爲財政收入來源的新動能。
高分紅策略在歷史上多階段均獲得超額收益
一則，行業穩健性較高，估值處於較低水平而股利分紅率較高的股票在低利率環境下能夠獲得一定穩定收益，同時可以作爲抵禦通貨膨脹的防禦性策略。二則，在波動放大、低風險偏好的市場環境中，高分紅國企往往擁有強大的資產負債表和財務穩定性，爲防範市場衰退風險提供“緩衝墊”，有在熊市中防禦能力較強的特徵，更顯“確定性”溢價，具有優秀的配置價值。
以A股市場爲例：
構建高分紅水平國企篩選體系
尋找高分紅水平國企的未來估值重構機會，需要考慮歷史分紅角度、派息分紅能力、派息分紅意願三個角度：1. 股息率指標-歷史角度：企業在過去進行分紅的具體情況是判斷未來企業分紅水平的重要參考；2. 派息分紅能力：業績穩定，擁有充足的現金流，擁有長期穩定的基本面是國企能夠進行持續高分紅的前提；3. 派息分紅意願：企業本身的派息分紅意願至關重要，不僅受企業股權結構影響，也需要考慮企業所處的行業邏輯。
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