海外流動性迅速變化，能否帶動港股共振上漲？
來源：戴清策略研究
今日港股高開，恆指漲1.43%，恆生科技指數漲2.25%；科指成分股多數上漲，嗶哩嗶哩漲超5%，網易、百度漲超4%，阿里巴巴漲超3%，快手、騰訊、京東漲超2%。
美國“硅谷銀行”事件持續發酵，流動性風險有所外溢，恐慌情緒仍在蔓延。海外流動出現急劇變化，市場押注美聯儲將於3月暫緩加息，下半年或開啓降息。近期全球風險偏好轉向Risk off，美股港股均出現調整。
國泰君安證券發表研報表示，後續若海外風險逐漸平息，風險偏好修復，港股短期有望與海外共振上漲。短期關注黃金、創新藥等海外流動性敏感行業。
美國“硅谷銀行”事件繼續發酵，市場恐慌情緒尚未消散。過去一週內，連續兩家區域性銀行（硅谷銀行、Signature Bank）因流動性問題而破產，市場恐慌情緒繼續蔓延。儘管美國財政部及美聯儲及時出手，與FDIC發表聯合聲明，稱存款人資金將得到全額保障。同時，美聯儲理事會宣佈還將創建新的銀行期限資金計劃（BTFP）提供額外資金，確保銀行的流動性需求，但對市場情緒的緩解有限，隔夜美股再有第一共和國銀行等多家銀行股價出現顯著調整。
加息預期急劇降溫，海外流動性出現重大變化。由於銀行流動性風險具有一定的傳染性，儘管美聯儲及美國財政部已出手爲流動性“兜底”，市場仍擔憂多家中小銀行在高利率環境下，存在資不抵債破產的風險。市場押注美聯儲或於3月暫緩加息，並於5月達到利率峯值，下半年開啓降息。利率期貨市場顯示年內加息終點一度降至當前聯邦基準利率的上限—4.75%附近。美指轉弱，美債10年期利率亦快速回落，中樞降至3.5%附近。
流動性迅速變化，會帶動港股共振上漲嗎？此次“硅谷銀行”事件使得美國金融系統在快速加息壓力下積累的風險開始暴露，預計美聯儲在抗擊通脹的同時將更兼顧金融風險，邊際利好海外流動性的改善。此外，當前海外流動性快速變化主要受到極端風險事件所致，從歷史經驗來看，影響較爲短期，且港股調整往往與美股同頻。
全球避險情緒高漲形勢下，近期美股港股均出現調整。後續若海外風險逐漸平息，風險偏好修復，港股短期或與美股共振上漲。短期可關注黃金、創新藥等海外流動性敏感行業。港股中期催化劑仍需等待美國經濟及通脹於Q2回落，海外流動性出現持續性改善。
繼續加息或放緩？美聯儲加息節奏或更兼顧通脹回落與金融穩定的平衡。雖美國經濟仍有韌性，通脹位置偏高，並3倍高於美聯儲的通脹目標，防止通脹失控仍是美聯儲的主要目標，但當前流動性監控指標FRA-OIS利差以及TED利差亦不同程度走高，均指向當前流動性風險仍未結束。面對潛在的風險，不排除美聯儲或出於金融穩定的考量而於3月暫緩加息的可能性。
預計此次流動性風險仍待時間平息，資產價格短期或維持震盪。1）近期加息預期急劇降溫，主要受極端風險事件影響，避險情緒仍在較高位置，流動性風險還未解除，美股或維持震盪。2）當前10年期美債已計入較多避險情緒，美債收益率短期或有所反彈，震盪中樞或維持在3.5%-4.0%。3）黃金價格短期受益，維持金價在1,800-2,000美元的區間判斷。
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