《大行報告》高盛料本港P按息已見頂 維持新世界(00017.HK)及長實(01113.HK)「買入」評級
高盛發表研究報告指,自今年年初以來,房價和交易活動錄得顯著改善。今年首兩個月的活動高於過去10年的平均水平,與去年上半年期間相對較低的水平形成鮮明對比。反映情緒變化的住宅樓價指數上升5%,而2022財年則下跌約15%。
該行預計,最優惠利率不會進一步上調,料當前的按揭利率水平將達到週期高峰,又預期新人才的流入將幫助香港恢復人口和就業的增長趨勢。另一方面,內地買家最近在一手和二手市場更加活躍,這可能是受到額外印花稅退稅和/或邊境開放後自由流動的鼓勵,且最近印花稅政策亦有所放寬。
該行表示,鑑於宏觀經濟背景的改善,維持新世界(00017.HK)及長實(01113.HK)「買入」評級,目標價分別為32.5元及65.1元。該行提到,新世界是香港槓桿率最高的房地產公司,派息比率也是最高,公司將受惠於美元利率緊縮週期的結束和/或香港及中國實體房地產市場的改善。另外,長實是一間更多元化的公司,擁有良好的中港房地產投資組合以及公用事業和酒館業務形式的更穩定收入來源,是唯一一間股息有增長的發展商,該行預計,其即將公布的業績將以2022財年約5%的股息增長。
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