瑞銀汪濤料今年內地信貸增速或保持約10%穩健增長
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤指,2月新增人民幣貸款1.81萬億元,高於市場預期,按年多增5,800億元,主要由企業中長期貸款和短期住戶貸款推動。企業中長期貸款持續按年多增,呼應了監管部門要求銀行信貸「應放盡放」,以及政策性銀行對基建項目持續提供信貸支持。短期住戶貸款反彈可能由於隨着經濟迅速重啓,消費貸和/或經營貸有所提升推動,也可能由於一些居民通過舉借短期貸款提前償還部分房貸。另一方面,新增中長期住戶貸款較去年也有所上升,新增860億元、按年多增1,320億元,爲2021年底以來首次按年多增,這呼應了近期30個大中城市房地產銷售有所反彈的趨勢。
2月官方社融和調整後社融按年增速均上升0.5至0.6個百分點至9.9%。2月新增信貸流量上升至26%。該行估算的信貸脈衝由負轉正,從1月的負1.4%回升至正增0.7%。1至2月合計新增銀行貸款較去年同期上升1.5萬億,主要由中長期企業貸款和短期企業及住戶貸款推動,疊加政府債券發行量按年多增,從而帶動1至2月新增社融持續超預期。
汪濤表示,2月信貸增速再次強於市場預期,主要由企業中長期貸款提升、消費貸和房貸小幅改善、以及政府債券發行走強推動。兩會政府工作報告小幅提高一般公共預算赤字率和地方政府專項債新增限額,並保持貨幣信貸政策溫和積極的支持基調,從而支持經濟復甦。朝前看,房地產相關信貸需求或將逐步企穩,同時隨着消費反彈,消費信貸可能也將有所恢復。
儘管如此,由於金融產品投資回報下降、新增貸款利率遠低於存量房貸利率,居民提前償還房貸的壓力仍存。另一方面,整體製造業和基建相關信貸需求增速可能較去年有所放緩。該行預計今年信貸增速可能保持10%左右的穩健增長;如果政策支持力度強於預期,信貸增速也可能會升至11%甚至更高。
此外,考慮到今年初新增信貸大幅高於預期和去年同期,未來幾個月監管層可能會對信貸增長的節奏有所調控,從而實現對實體經濟的可持續信貸支持。
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