惠譽:今年中國煉油和天然氣進口業務利潤率有望改善
評級機構惠譽表示,得益於成本傳導更加順暢、出口增加及國內需求回暖,今年中國煉油廠利潤率有望回升。隨著原油價格下跌及歐洲天然氣短缺情況緩解可能壓降天然氣進口成本,中國國有石油公司的天然氣進口損失也有望收窄。
低基數疊加公路和航空出行增多,將帶動今年國內成品油消費回暖,不過回暖勢頭將在一定程度上被電動汽車滲透率上升所抵銷。柴油需求增速將受去年高基數影響而放緩,並有賴於工業需求的復甦情況。惠譽預計工業需求復甦程度將弱於消費復甦。
惠譽亦預期,成品油出口增加將為中國國有石油公司的煉油利潤率提供支撐。今年中國下發的首批成品油出口配額大幅增長,加之國際裂解價差按年創下歷史新高,將驅動煉廠出口利潤率抬升。儘管全球衰退風險或令出口需求承壓,但俄羅斯成品油出口禁令、中國重新開放及海外煉油廠關停等因素應能支撐今年的裂解價差。
惠譽預期,專注於下游業務的中石化(00386.HK)的財務狀況將在今年得到加強。去年,中石化穩健的上游業務表現紓解了其下游業務疲弱表現。惠譽預計,專注於上游業務的中石油(00857.HK)、其母公司中國石油天然氣集團公司以及中海油(00883.HK)的EBITDA淨槓桿率將進一步改善。
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