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大新:內地2月消費及生產物價雙雙轉弱 主因基數較高
阿思達克 03-09 14:06
大新銀行經濟研究及投資策略部表示,內地2月消費物價及生產物價雙雙轉弱,主要由於去年同期基數較高。消費物價指數按年升1%,升幅創一年新低,較1月顯著回落1.1個百分點,也大幅低於市場預期的1.9%,主要由於春節後消費需求回落,加上天氣回暖,令食品價格升幅顯著放緩3.6個百分點至2.6%;非食品價格升幅亦放緩至0.6%,較1月低0.6個百分點,機票及旅遊價格放緩幅度較大,同樣受春節因素影響。 整體而言,該行認為內地通脹壓力仍十分溫和,隨著內地重啟經濟,非食品價格未來幾個月的升幅或會溫和加快,今年整體通脹或維持在2%左右,與去年全年通脹水平相若。 另外,生產物價指數跌幅擴大至1.4%,是超過兩年來最大跌幅,主要由於去年同期俄烏衝突爆發,令國際油價急升。展望未來,國際能源價格未見明顯反彈,或限制石油及天然氣開採價格升幅;若工業及房地產市場逐步回穩,或可支持工業用金屬及煤價止跌回升。大新估計,生產物價指數今年第一季可望見底,全年升幅或會低於5%。
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