3月加息50基點的概率升至70%！鮑威爾“鷹”聲震天響，交易員押注未來四次會議累計加息100基點
鮑威爾聽證會後，利率期貨市場預計，3月加息50個基點的機率超過70%，一天前只有約31%。分析人士指出，鮑威爾一方面暗示利率峯值會更高，另一方面稱加息步伐也會提速。
本週二美聯儲主席鮑威爾在衆議院作證時稱，聯儲準備必要時加快加息步伐。有分析人士認爲，這次鮑威爾做出了鷹派傾向加倍的表態。
Brandywine Global Investment Management的投資組合經理Tracy Chen表示：
鮑威爾這次的鷹調是雙倍的，一方面暗示利率峯值會更高，另一方面稱加息步伐也會提速。鑑於近期的通脹數據，他之前把加息幅度下調至25基點可能操之過急了，這次的調整可能降低美聯儲落後於形勢的風險。
在鮑威爾表示美聯儲準備好必要時加快緊縮後，市場迅速做出反應，美債交易員提高了對美聯儲加速升息的預測。
美國國債收益率全線飆升，短債收益率帶頭攀升。2年與基準10年期美債的息差盤中超過-100個基點，收益率曲線倒掛幅度刷新1981年來最嚴重水平。其他收益率曲線也出現倒掛加深，2年與30年期美債息差一度接近-109個基點，倒掛程度達到創紀錄水平。
互換合約市場對3月的加息押注發生轉變，目前定價顯示，聯儲加息50個基點的可能性略高於繼續加息25個基點。交易員預計，未來四次會議，聯儲將累計加息100基點，利率峯值將僅略低於5.6%，高於鮑威爾講話前一日、本週一的5.5%左右。
高盛經濟學家此後上調了他們對美聯儲政策利率峯值的預期，預計利率最高達到5.5%到5.75%，並預計，3月會後美聯儲公佈的更新後點陣圖將顯示，聯儲官員的今年內利率預期中位值將較12月的上次預期上調50個基點，升至5.5%到5.75%。
到美股收盤後，芝商所（CME）的“美聯儲觀察工具”顯示，目前美國聯邦基金利率期貨交易市場預計，3月美聯儲加息50個基點的機率從一天前的略超過31%升至70%以上，加息25個基點的機率從一天前的接近69%降至不足30%。
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