3月加息50基点的概率升至70%！鲍威尔“鹰”声震天响，交易员押注未来四次会议累计加息100基点
鲍威尔听证会后，利率期货市场预计，3月加息50个基点的几率超过70%，一天前只有约31%。分析人士指出，鲍威尔一方面暗示利率峰值会更高，另一方面称加息步伐也会提速。
本周二美联储主席鲍威尔在众议院作证时称，联储准备必要时加快加息步伐。有分析人士认为，这次鲍威尔做出了鹰派倾向加倍的表态。
Brandywine Global Investment Management的投资组合经理Tracy Chen表示：
鲍威尔这次的鹰调是双倍的，一方面暗示利率峰值会更高，另一方面称加息步伐也会提速。鉴于近期的通胀数据，他之前把加息幅度下调至25基点可能操之过急了，这次的调整可能降低美联储落后于形势的风险。
在鲍威尔表示美联储准备好必要时加快紧缩后，市场迅速做出反应，美债交易员提高了对美联储加速升息的预测。
美国国债收益率全线飙升，短债收益率带头攀升。2年与基准10年期美债的息差盘中超过-100个基点，收益率曲线倒挂幅度刷新1981年来最严重水平。其他收益率曲线也出现倒挂加深，2年与30年期美债息差一度接近-109个基点，倒挂程度达到创纪录水平。
互换合约市场对3月的加息押注发生转变，目前定价显示，联储加息50个基点的可能性略高于继续加息25个基点。交易员预计，未来四次会议，联储将累计加息100基点，利率峰值将仅略低于5.6%，高于鲍威尔讲话前一日、本周一的5.5%左右。
高盛经济学家此后上调了他们对美联储政策利率峰值的预期，预计利率最高达到5.5%到5.75%，并预计，3月会后美联储公布的更新后点阵图将显示，联储官员的今年内利率预期中位值将较12月的上次预期上调50个基点，升至5.5%到5.75%。
到美股收盘后，芝商所（CME）的“美联储观察工具”显示，目前美国联邦基金利率期货交易市场预计，3月美联储加息50个基点的几率从一天前的略超过31%升至70%以上，加息25个基点的几率从一天前的接近69%降至不足30%。
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