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瑞銀料中國今年外商企業投資回升 產業鏈正在調整及重組
阿思達克 03-07 12:49
瑞銀亞洲經濟研究主管,首席中國經濟學家汪濤在電話會議中表示,去年在中國的外商投資的下降幅度較大,是由於疫情下人員交流和企業營運均受到衝擊。她預計,今年的外商企業投資會有回升,因為今年對中國的經濟不確定因素已經大大減弱,加上重新開放及回復人員交流。另一方面,不少企業考慮到關稅和風險,加上成本增加,令製造業將一部分產能投放到東南亞和東北等地區。不過,她指出中國的市場廣大,經濟在疫情下繼續發展,是全球一個重要的經濟體,仍有很多製造業公司在內地投資,因此,目前的產業鏈是一個調整和重組的過程,而不只是企業投資外流。 她預期,今年內地會降準一次並為50點子,因為目前的水平已經較低,下調的空間已經不大,加上央行仍有很多工具來提升市場流動性。她又提到,今年中國的消費正常化帶動經濟復甦,因此經濟目標增加5%是一個務實的預測。另外,今年是城投債還債規劃,認為城投將面對相當大的壓力,因為城投表現多與房地產市場和賣地掛鉤,所以會受到房地產放緩和賣地收入減少所影響。 對於國家主席習近平提到的推動平台市場公平競爭制度,她認為目前內地的監管已經常態化,該政策已經確立了方向,且消除了監管的不確定性,這有助鼓勵平台企業在法規內發展及進行整改。不過,整體的具體措施仍要等待各部門的政策出台。 瑞銀證券中國策略分析師孟磊表示,對今年A股表現感到樂觀,料今年北向資金淨流入將錄得3,000億元,並相信海外資金仍將長期淨流入A股市場,又預期今年A股盈利增長將回升至15%。他強調,海外投資對A股市場不是沒有信心,而是需時恢復。在行業配置方面,他予休閒服務、家用電器、食品飲料、電池產業鏈、及計算機業務板塊「超配」評級,而銀行、能源、基建、農林漁牧行業則予「低配」評級。
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