期權大單 | 特斯拉期權成交量大增，華爾街押注3月升息50點
一、市場概覽
3月4日週五，美股集體收高，三大股指上週均錄得漲幅！隨着週五公佈的美國2月ISM服務業PMI跨過榮枯線，並創出去年6月來的新高，美債收益率集體回落。
二、期權成交總量TOP10
標普500ETF期權交易量依然居首，除指數ETF外，排名居前的基本都是大型科技股。特斯拉、蘋果、Meta、亞馬遜上週均整體收漲。特斯拉當週的“末日期權”交易在週五成交火爆，多空交織。
美國散戶狂買特斯拉
上週最重要的公司新聞就是特斯拉史上首個投資者日。雖然，由於沒有發佈新車型，特斯拉股價在投資者日過後大幅下跌，但當週整體收漲。根據Vanda Research數據，最近幾周，美國散戶再度搶購特斯拉股票，今年資金流入136億美元，接近2022年全年近170億美元的紀錄。
到目前爲止，散戶們對於特斯拉的興趣超過其他任何證券。
數據還顯示，在2月份的最後一週，散戶投資者單日特斯拉淨買入量的五天移動平均值達到約4.6億美元，而排名第二名的$標普500指數ETF(IVV)$僅有1.5億美元，不及前者的三分之一。即使與2020年和2021年疫情大流行期間的瘋狂交易相比，特斯拉近期的交易量也非常驚人。
上週，最引人注目的異動不是來自個股，而是對“加息”的押注：根據CME週五公佈的未平倉合約初步數據證實，週四市場積累了大量押注3月升息50基點的有擔保隔夜融資利率期貨（SOFR）。
一旦美聯儲在3月21-22日會議上恢復加息50個基點，那麼這些低價買入期權的投資者就能借此以小博大。根據計算，如果週四買進100萬美元4月到期的SOFR期權，最高將能夠獲利約1300萬美元。
從日程安排上看，目前距離美聯儲3月22日利率決議的發佈，當中分別還有最後一份非農數據和CPI報告將要發佈。如果這兩份報告依然顯示出美國就業市場緊張以及通脹具有高度粘性，那麼3月加息50個基點的可能性很可能就將進一步大增。
顯然，市場的天空中盤旋着越來越多的鷹派，投資者強烈關注3月加息幅度，這或許預示着股債市場可能出現更多波動。
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