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瑞銀汪濤:上調今年中國GDP增長預測至5.4%
阿思達克 03-06 10:01
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,兩會政府工作報告設定今年經濟增長目標設定在5%左右,與該行基準預測一致。宏觀政策基本延續中央經濟工作會議定調,小幅提高一般公共預算赤字率(GDP的3%)和地方政府專項債新增限額(3.8萬億元人民幣),貨幣政策保持溫和積極的支持基調。 考慮到今年政府換屆,她稱政府工作報告僅簡單闡述今年的政策定調和工作重點,新一屆政府在上台之後可能會出台更多具體的政策支持。該行認為政策性銀行對基建投資的信貸支持還有進一步擴大的空間,財政貨幣等政策要實現「統籌運用」,更多地方政府可能會出台擴大消費的具體政策措施。 瑞銀將今明兩年中國GDP增速預測從4.9%和4.8%,分別上調至5.4%和5.2%,認為近期經濟重啟的進程快於該行此前預期,而市場所擔心的第二輪新冠疫情並未兌現,迄今為止疫情感染達峰對供給側和生產端的擾動較為有限。此外,今年初的CPI通脹遠低於此前預期,該行仍預計未來幾個月經濟重啟將推動多項服務業價格上漲,但將今年全年CPI預測從此前的3%,下調至2.5%。
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