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瑞銀汪濤:1至2月中國經濟活動改善 料政府今年經濟增長目標約為5%
阿思達克 03-03 14:06
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,中國1月和2月的經濟活動資料將於3月合併發布。2月統計局製造業PMI超預期反彈至52.6,來自春節後季節性因素、疫情影響消退和生產動能走強的共同推動。她預計,即將公布的1至2月經濟資料將顯示經濟活動改善,其中工業生產和社會消費品零售按年增速小幅走強,房地產活動按年跌幅收窄,而基建和製造業投資增速可能有所放緩。出口按年跌幅可能略有收窄。2月信貸增速可能反彈,而通脹可能小幅下降。1至2月瑞銀中國經濟活動指數較12月顯著反彈,尤其是服務業活動,主要得益於防疫限制取消和消費者情緒改善。值得注意的是,從農曆可比口徑看,2月最後兩周,18城地鐵客運量較2022年同期高25%,30城房地產銷售較2022年同期高5%。 瑞銀預計,在即將召開的全國人大會議上,政府將重申穩增長至關重要,政策定調積極寬鬆。在該行目前今年GDP增長4.9%的基準預測下,預計政府會將今年經濟增長目標設定在約5%,將一般公共預算赤字率小幅擴大至GDP的3%,地方政府專項債限額小幅擴大至3.7到3.8萬億元,以及進一步放鬆房地產政策。該行預計,今年央行會再降準一次,不會下調MLF等政策利率,但LPR或將進一步小幅下調,信貸增速溫和回升至10%。該行預計,政策會繼續強調提振消費,但不會出臺全國性的大規模消費刺激或收入補貼。信心修復、科技創新與供應鏈自主可控將是政策關注重點。與此同時,兩會的政策定調和支持力度有可能強於此前的基準預測,政府有可能設定更高的經濟增長目標,如5%以上或約5.5%、一般公共預算赤字率和地方政府專項債新增限額,LPR更大幅度地下調,信貸增速更大幅度反彈。若超預期的政策支持在兩會及其之後落實兌現,今年中國GDP增長有可能加快至5.5至6%。
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