《大行報告》高盛微降中移動(00941.HK)目標價至63.6元 升聯通(00762.HK)目標價至6.9元
高盛發表研究報告指出,三大中資電訊商中移動(00941.HK)、中電信(00728.HK)及聯通(00762.HK)將於3月8日起陸續公布去年下半年業績,該行預期他們的收入按年穩定增長7%至8%,EBITDA增長6%至8%,純利跌9%至增長25%,主要因為個別非經營項目和每間公司的具體費率。單計去年第四季,該行預期三大電訊商的整體收入增長保持穩定,但由於疫情防控措施及去年底染疫個案激增,可能令部分對企業或政府的項目延遲。
該行估計,三大電訊商的企業業務將成為未來幾年的主要增長動力,尤其是雲業務,因為在國家政策推動下,政府與國企的需求不斷增長。目前料三大電訊商今年的雲業務收入增長50%至60%。另鑑於5G網絡建設的負擔較低,預計整體資本開支壓力下降,相信更多的資本開支將分配給數據中心和電腦網絡基礎設施,以支持雲業務增長。此外,該行預料三大電訊商今年將繼續增加派息,中移動及中電信此前已宣布目標至2024年將派息率提高至70%以上,雖然聯通未有具體說明未來幾年的派息率目標,但管理層透露派息率呈上升趨勢。
中移動方面,高盛對其今明財年的預測基本不變,對其去年純利預測上調3%,目標價由64元微降至63.6元,評級「中性」。中電信方面,該行考慮到其略高的雲收入以反映企業部門更強勁的需求前景,對其今明兩年收入預測各上調1%,純利預測上調1%至2%,對其去年預測不變,目標價由4.2元上調至4.6元,維持「買入」評級。聯通方面,該行對其去年純利預測上調8%,今明兩年亦上調2%至4%,目標價由6.7元升至6.9元,維持「買入」評級。
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