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供需緊張加劇!內蒙古某露天煤礦大坍塌,煤炭價格將迎大反彈?

2月23日,A煤炭板塊開盤拉昇截至發稿,山煤國際漲超7%,兗礦能源漲超4%,昊華能源蘭花科創、陝西煤業等多股跟漲。

同時,港股煤炭股普漲,兗礦能源漲超5%、兗煤澳大利亞漲約3%。

消息面上,22日,內蒙古阿拉善盟左旗新井煤業有限公司一露天煤礦發生大面積坍塌,目前,當地煤礦已全部停產,進行安全隱患排查。

據悉,內蒙古是世界最大的露天煤礦之鄉,我國重要的能源保障基地。據內蒙古能源局數據,2022年預計當地全年煤炭產量12.2億噸,完成煤炭保供任務9.5億噸。

受此消息影響,今日煤炭股集體走強。

內蒙古坍塌煤礦為失信企業

 

昨日,內蒙古阿拉善盟阿拉善左旗新井煤業有限公司一露天煤礦發生大面積坍塌,長度約400m,有工作人員和車輛被埋。

目前現場的救援隊伍有11支,470人左右和130多輛大型救援機械。但是塌方量巨大,救援難度很大,周邊的增援力量還在陸續趕赴現場。

受消息影響,煤炭價格應聲上漲,創近期新高。外界猜測可能由於煤炭供應緊張,而產能擴張容易的露天煤礦由於開採便利,充當了擴能保供主力,突然加大的開採工作,致使煤田產生大的擾動,工作面不穩定,安全監測工作也未及時跟上,導致了這一特大安全事故。

此次新井煤業坍塌事故雖然很有可能是山體滑坡導致的,但是事故的間接原因,預計可以關聯到煤礦安全生產主體責任未落實,法制意識淡薄,安全培訓不到位,安全員無證上崗,隱瞞煤礦安全隱患等。

據企查查風險信息顯示,涉事公司關聯1條被執行人信息,被執行總金額8075萬元,失信被執行人信息13條且失信被執行人均顯示“全部未履行”,失信總金額約7.57億元,限制高消費信息共31條,關聯對象包括該公司股東陳逢幹、丁瑞以及法定代表人王學雲。    

另據《中國環境報》2015年報道,因存在未批先建、未落實環評要求等問題,新井煤業還曾被責令停產。此外,新井煤業還存在兩次行政處罰紀錄,其中一次在2022年6月9日,公司兩名煤礦安全員無特種作業操作證上崗作業、煤礦領導未按規定認真填寫交接班記錄簿,未説明採礦存在的問題、安全狀況等問題。

市場人士表示,主產區全面安全檢查工作會影響煤炭產量,可能會刺激電廠和其他主體囤積煤炭,煤炭供需緊張加大,煤炭價格料將大幅度抬升。

機構普遍看好煤炭板塊

 

展望後市,有機構認為,焦煤供給短期減量迅速打破原本緊平衡格局,由於缺乏庫存緩衝,整體價格彈性巨大,事件炒作加上政策調控或吸引資金從鐵礦轉移到焦煤,放大價格漲幅。目前焦炭自身故事不多,加上下游利潤未見明顯擴張,因此主要交易成本定價的邏輯,焦煤價格暴漲形成成本驅動,短期仍維持跟隨。

信達證券預計,2022-2025煤炭消費量有望保持年均2.07%的增長當前正處在煤炭經濟新一輪週期上行的初期,基本面、政策面共振,現階段配置煤炭板塊正當時。當前,煤炭下游需求加速復甦,電廠日耗不斷攀升,沿海八省動力煤日耗已經高於往年同期水平,非電煤下游開工率亦穩步提高,煤炭價格有望迎來企穩回升。煤炭板塊有望迎來一輪業績與估值雙升的歷史性行情。

川財證券認為,上半年煤炭需求恢復不及預期的可能相對較大,在海內外多重因素共振下,煤炭價格中樞有望下移。下半年隨着中國經濟復甦動能的積累,疊加海外經濟當前表現正在持續向好,煤炭在進入第三季度後,需求有望再次進入旺季,煤炭價格將在下半年迎來反彈。在過去幾年的業績上可以看出,煤企持續性遠超預期,具有較高的板塊性價比。

中信證券研報指出,目前煤炭板塊在估值及股息率的預期方面具備價值吸引力,隨着短期市場風險偏好的下降以及後續潛在的寬鬆政策預期,板塊短期或進入反彈階段。

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